Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."